How Do Great Leaders Make Better Decisions Under Pressure?
Here’s the annoying truth about making better decisions: you only ever get to see the road you took.
If it goes badly, you’ll never know whether the other road would have been worse. If it goes well, you’ll never know whether you were smart or just lucky. And yet in business, we’re asked to make these calls all the time, usually with less information than we’d like.
I’ve been there. Let me share what I’ve learned, including a few calls I’ll never know the answer to.
Why are decisions under pressure so hard to judge?
Because we grade them by their outcomes. A good decision can end badly, and a sloppy one can end beautifully. If you only learn from results, you’ll learn the wrong lessons.
This is where my Judge (my top saboteur, and probably yours too) loves to show up. It reviews every outcome like a harsh critic, long after the decision is made. A better question to ask yourself is, “Did I make this call with the best information and thinking available at the time?”
What does “too fast” and “too slow” look like?
I’ve watched people decide purely on instinct. I’ve also watched people ignore the data when it pointed away from the answer they wanted. That’s unconscious bias, and the outcome is a crapshoot.
I lean the other direction. In DISC (a personality tool that describes how people approach problems and people), I’m High C, which means careful and analytical. High C me will happily wait for one more data point and miss the window. My Hyper-Achiever saboteur and my High D (direct and decisive) keep me honest by pushing me to act. My Hyper-Rational saboteur, meanwhile, insists the next spreadsheet will make everything clear. It rarely does.
Sometimes waiting is smart. Sometimes a call must be made. The skill is knowing which kind of moment you’re in.
How do you make better decisions when you don’t have enough information?
Find some data, then talk to people. My hypervigilance is low and I lean impulsive, so hearing other people’s concerns helps me in two ways. At minimum, it helps me make the decision. At best, it shows me which risks to manage once I’ve made it.
When I started two companies, including a software company and Coaching by Toby, I didn’t just jump in. I built the business case, researched the industry, ran the numbers and studied the competition. As a product leader, I know a good launch includes a little testing before spending a lot. Both companies met my objectives.
Research also saved me twice. I had two ideas I wanted to launch, did a small amount of homework, and decided they weren’t worth pursuing. Maybe they would have worked anyway. I’ll never know, and I’ve made peace with that.
How do you know what to look at before you decide?
My favorite tool is a question I learned from IDEO-U: “What would have to be true for this to be a good idea?”
It flips the conversation. Instead of arguing about whether an idea is good, you list the conditions that would need to hold, then check the shakiest ones first. It gives you a map of what to research, and a way to talk about risk without turning it into a debate about who’s right. I wrote more about how I use it here
What can Coca-Cola and Quibi teach us about decisions?
In 1985, Coca-Cola replaced its original formula with New Coke. Nearly 200,000 customers preferred the new formula in pre-launch taste tests. The data was real. But the company was flooded with up to 8,000 calls a day, and the original formula returned 79 days later as Coca-Cola Classic. The tests measured taste. They never measured how people felt about losing the original. Beverage Backlash: History of New Coke
Data only answers the question you asked. Ask the wrong question and you can be confidently wrong. They never asked "what would habe to be true."
Quibi shows the other side. It raised $1.75 billion before launch and was gone within six months. Observers noted it hadn’t tested its offering on a small scale to get user feedback. Big money went in before small tests came first. yahookornferry
What about the ideas that didn’t work?
Some new services in my coaching business didn’t take off. I honestly don’t know if they were weak ideas or if I didn’t invest enough in marketing them. That’s the uncomfortable part of deciding: some results can’t be explained.
And then there’s the one that got away. Back in the early days of PDAs, I had an idea for an app that identified plants. With zero research, I decided it wasn’t valuable enough to pursue. Today those apps are everywhere, and some will even tell you how to revive a dying fern. Was I wrong? Maybe I was just early. I’ll never know, and that’s okay.
AI and 3D printers have made prototypes cheaper and faster to build, so a test can be a quick prototype instead of a big bet.
What energy are you deciding from?
In iPEC’s energy leadership framework, fear-based energy (scarcity, urgency, “what if I’m wrong?”) narrows your options. Curious, creative energy widens them. Pressure pushes most of us toward fear, and my Controller saboteur is happy to ride along.
That’s why my coaching practice includes a decision-making model. When a client says, “I think I want...,” one of my key questions comes next: “Are you making this decision based on fear?” If the answer is yes, I follow with, “What would you do if that fear would never happen?” The answer is often very different from the first one.
Here’s a tiny thing to try
Next time you face a pressured decision, run through these:
Name the window. Ask, “When does waiting become a decision?” Put a date on it.
Ask “what would have to be true for this to be a good idea?” List the conditions, then test the shakiest one before you decide.
Check for fear. Ask yourself, “Am I deciding based on fear?” If yes, ask, “What would I do if that fear would never happen?”
Ask one person to poke holes. Ask, “What worries you about this?” Then listen without defending.
Plan for the top risk and write down your reasoning. Future you can judge the decision on how you made it, with less guesswork about the outcome.
If you’re tired of second-guessing your calls (or rushing them), let’s talk it through. Schedule a free discovery call: www.tobyadamson.com/discoverysession
Coach Toby
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